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Macroeconomic Trends & Investment Themes Part 2 (Third Quarter 2008)

Do quantitative strategies move in and out of favor? In Part 1 we reviewed some of the more common applications of macroeconomic research in Global, Country and Stock investment strategies. In this issue, we will look at specific relationships between macroeconomic variables and quantitative strategies. If indeed there are relationships we can consider two approaches. In the first approach, a manager could anticipate the robustness or weakness of a particular strategy based on a macroeconomic forecast. But making accurate forecasts of a macroeconomic environment is difficult enough before trying to estimate the impact of the environment on an investment strategy !

We take an alternative approach here to forecasting macroeconomic effects by analyzing future performance of quantitative strategies following a change in a macroeconomic variable today. The question that represents this approach is “Given the macroeconomic news we heard today, how will my strategy be impacted ?”


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